Thursday, July 31, 2008

Canwest Deathwatch

Today, Canada's largest private media company dipped below $2 for the first time.

A prediction; The Teachers Pension people will immediately spin off Bell's interests in The Globe and Mail when the take-over deal goes through. Teachers has already wrecked two newspaper chains -- Sun Media and Osprey -- and couldn't possibly be interested in doing it again.


This dog hit another 52 week low Friday.
Disclosure: I am buying a bunch of this when it gets to $1.55 and I might chicken out and do it earlier, say at $1.70. I believe the break-up value of Canwest is far, far higher than the $2.00 it's trading at now. Anything that shows any sign the idjut second generation Aspers and their stooges are losing control of this company will send the stock well above $5. Watch for things like Thomson getting back into newspapers and, especially, for signs that the Graspers are lobbying for changes to the laws barring US companies from owning controlling shares in newspaper companies. Or this might just end up as a medium-term investment. Even with the management this company has now, it is insanely under-priced. People are believing too much conventional wisdom and forgetting the potential value of the capital assets of this company.

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