Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Canwest: Maybe it's crazy, but...

UPDATE: Now probing a buck. At this rate, Canwest risks being taken off the TSE entirely and kicked to the curb, um, "Venture Exchange". Canwest is now down to $1.18, way below what it would take to get back on the TSE/S&P Index. Couple of reasons: the index funds have to sell it now, and the analyst downgrade that I blogged about yesterday:

A friend had a very strange scenario for this company today. Call it crazy. Call it as dumb as my election prediction (which I did warn everyone was based on a dream, and was nothing I would bet upon). Conrad Black gets pardoned by Bush in January, when Bush is on the way out. OK. So far, not way off the map of probability. And Black makes one of the great historic comebacks of all time by... Christ, I can't even type the rest. But think about it. It's truly Napoleonic. It's as though D'Erlon had got his men into formation and made it over the rise.

FROM MONDAYA major investment analyst has set her target price for Canwest shares at a buck. She also advises people slowly unload the stock, changing her call on Canwest from a "speculative buy".
Most interesting line in the story: Canwest's big bonds come due in 2012 -- three years. I was having a hell of a time finding that bit of information.
So three years until the Great Reckoning for the Aspers, but until then they have no credit to buy or expand anything. And I doubt the fundamentals of Canwest will be fundamentally different in three years, at least in a good way.
Now, my next big question, for anyone in the know: what are the chances of interest default on this junk-bond yield debt? Because that would change everything.

The turkey is now back to its all-time low, $1.28.

To add insult, etc... The Scud Stud is now suing them for a very nasty column in the Calgary Herald by Don Martin.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I figured that Conrad might revive the Elmvale Lance and start from there.
I would think Radler, who will soon be out of prison, might be a more likely candidate for a Canwest revival.
Though I wonder if either one would be prohibited from corporate positions?