Sunday, October 12, 2008

Election prediction

Everyone and their dog is predicting a Tory minority. These predictions are a good thing for NDP and Green voters, who don't have to worry that their "wasted" votes will, in fact, become votes for Harper. On top of Layton's well-run and lovingly-reported campaign, I'd expect a few NDP pick-ups.
But from where? Their old T.C. Douglas fiefs on the Prairies are gone. The seats will have to come from Ontario and BC, but I do believe the upsurge in Dipper support may simply vault many candidates from third to second place.
The Election Prediction Project, which looks at the race seat-by-seat, still hasn't called it. (Hey, guys, I can call it on Wednesday, too.) They do have some interesting predictions: Justin Trudeau and Marc Garneau being elected in Montreal, Garth Turner being alive in Halton. My own guy tells me at least one of the Montreal Liberals won't make it, and I'd bet a few bucks with the right odds that neither Garneau nor Trudeau are coming to Ottawa. And I'd throw in Garth, too.
I also thing the Green vote is very, very soft, a sort of "none of the above" that's been given to pollsters. I also suspect many people who answered "Green" to pollsters are people who aren't going to vote at all.
Now, two weeks ago, I would have said the people who are going to vote -- older people -- would vote en masse against Stephane Dion. Now, I've changed my mind. The Liberals have launched an ad campaign telling people that, under Stephen Harper, they're on their own in the coming recession. This ad is a killer, mostly because it's true. It nails the fear of the financial crisis. Unlike the Tory ad with the worried yuppie mom, it talks about reality. We know we are in a recession, and we know Harper will not help anyone who's in financial trouble. People who are worried are looking for some sign of compassion and generosity, two things completely lacking in the Tories. That's why I think a few seats in rural Ontario and suburban Toronto (big shout-out to the over-mortgaged!) are going to unexpectedly flip to the Liberals, along with some BC seats and a full sweep of Atlantic Canada.
So I'm going to stick my neck out. Thursday night, I had a dream that the Liberals won this election by one seat. So I'll go all Mackenzie King on ya. That's my prediction: Libs by a seat.

UPDATE (Monday): Election Prediction Project has called it a Harper minority and basically saying this election will return most incumbents except Garth Turner, Keith Martin, Loyola Hearn and some nobodies who deserve to get turfed. They are basically seeing this election as a very light housekeeping.


BrainDrainXP said...

I told you to lay off the Stilton Cheese before bed, it gives you nightmares.

Ottawa Watch said...

It was a very specific dream: The Liberals would win by one seat, and they would win Essex (Ontario), which is now a Tory seat.

BrainDrainXP said...

Okay, if you are right (libs winning), I'll buy you lunch at the Archives. I know that is not very palatable, but neither is the thought of PMSD.

Ottawa Watch said...

Good Lord! If I LOSE, you should buy me lunch at the Archives. What are you trying to do to me? My GAWD, anywhere but there.

(For the unitiated, there is no worse food in Ottawa. And the Library and Archives Canada [Formerly NATIONAL archives, but now there's only one nation in Canada] has the worst, the absolute worst, coffee in the world.)

Let's have lunch. Maybe Thursday?
I have no idea who you are, though. PM me.