One blogger does not a political movement make, but watch as Harper's move to the centre leaves more and more neo-cons, right-wing Prairie populists, Western separatists, penticostal Christians, believers in a closed-door immigration policy, libertarians and opponents of the idea of Human Rights Commission jurisdiction over publications -- and these are not all necessarily inclusive or exclusive of each other -- feeling left out. And they may well react the way they did in the 1980s: by threatening to split the Conservative vote.
Stephen Harper's Tory party is a big and very shaky tent, just like Mulroney's '84 coalition. He's the only person holding it together. That's why you can pretty much forget the typings of columnists who mull the idea of him leaving in the near-future.