Monday, April 13, 2009

Canwest Corpsewatch, April 13 edition

Analysts say shares in Canada's largest media company are worthless.
New all-time low: 22 cents.

Moody's says the Asepers made dumb decisions two years ago when they bought Alliance-Atlantis (partly for the CSI franchise, which had already jumped the shark) and when they stubbornly held onto Australia's Ten Network when there were people willing to buy it at a decent price.

National Bank analyst Adam Shine says: "We see no compelling reason to own, let alone buy CanWest shares which we would sooner continue to avoid.
"We can't help but shake our heads as we think about how easily a covenant breach could have been avoided, had better decisions been taken over the previous two years – better structure for the AAC (Alliance Atlantis Communications) purchase, no acquisitions in Turkey, no repurchase of minority stake in then publicly traded newspaper trust, sale of entire or at least partial stake in Network Ten (an Australian television network) at prices easily above current levels, let alone above $2 (Australian)."

Moody's rating: underperform. Moody's stock price target: 30 cents.
My target: one thin dime, just like Nortel. At a dime, I'd take a chance that Prem Watsa will somehow save some shareholder equity. Watsa is almost at the 20% ownership cap that's allowed to him. But the company, which used to have a stock cap of $2 billion, now is worth $25 million (plus $4 billion for the bankers).

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