And here's why:
All of the "Class of 2004", the MPs elected in Paul Martin's winter election, become eligible for their pension in June, 2010. Don't expect any of them to show up in favor of risking their cash for life.
As well, the opposition parties know the last budget, especially its tax write-offs for home renovations, was very popular. The Tories will claim the budget puts those goodies in jeopardy.
It takes almost all of the MPs from all three Opposition parties to actually show up and vote against the government. Will all of these parties -- at the same time -- see an election in their best interests? Nope.
The Liberals have yet to find a good message to run on. I spoke with one Opposition Leader's Office strategist yesterday and his talking points were just old platitudes. This government won't be defeated unless the Liberals come up with a real issue, something like Free Trade in 1988. Smart Liberals know this and are working hard to come up with something.
Many in the media say Ignatieff pulled the plug on Harper yesterday. He didn't. He said the Liberals will not support the government any longer. Ignatieff should have done this last winter when the Tories were rubbing his nose in the coalition dirt. Let Harper go cap in hand to the Bloc and the NDP. he would have done it while the Liberals did their job of opposing Harper's policies. It seems Ignatieff has finally clued in.
So expect a nasty fall session. But an election? At most, it might happen by accident.